How likely is it that an offender will be reconvicted?
Human Rights Watch Statement
(page 38)The US Department of Justice tracked 9,691 male sex offenders in 15 states who were released from prison in 1994 and found that within three years only 5.3 percent of all sex offenders were arrested, and 3.5 percent convicted, for a new sex crime; 2.2 percent were rearrested for a sex offense against a child.
(page 38)State-specific studies have yielded similar results. For example, in Ohio, only 8 percent of former sex offenders were reincarcerated for another sex offense within a 10-year period. Sex offenders who returned for a new sex offense did so within a few years of release. Within three years of their release, 2 percent of New York inmates who had served time for a sex offense returned to prison with a conviction for another sex offense. Within nine years, the number was 10 percent.
Family Watchdog's Conclusion (Response)
In long-term sex offender recidivism studies the rate of reconviction is between 40 and 50+%. HRW cites time-limited studies that do not accurately report recidivism rates.
Background
"the true recidivism base rate over 25 years for extrafamilial sexual abusers is 52% and for rapists is 39%."*
The recidivism rate, which is defined as rearrest and/or reconviction, is 24% for all offenders, and as high as 37% for molesters that have targeted a male.**
This study allows that a 20 year recidivism rate can be determined. Increasing the time line to 20 years increased the recidivism rates to 28% and 41%, respectively.
42% of the total sample were reconvicted for sexual crimes, violent crimes***
The majority of adult male perpetrators have sexually abused more than one victim. 70% claim to have abused 1-9 children, 23% claim to have abused 10-40 children, and 7% claim to have abused 41-450 children. 6.6% of perpetrators also claim to have sexually assaulted an adult victim.****
The number of sexual acts against children committed by pedophiles ranges from about 20 to nearly 300 per offender.****
Sources
*Doren, D. M. (1998). Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the "sexual predator" commitment laws. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16, 97-114.
**http://ww2.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/pdf/200403-2_e.pdf
****Long-term recidivism of child molesters by Hansen et al in Journal of Consulting Clinical Psychology, 1993, 61(4):646-52.
***Self-Reported Sex Crimes of Non-incarcerated Paraphiliacs by Abel et al in Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 1987, vol 2, no 1, pp 3-25.
The Following by eAdvocate:
The most logical way to respond here is to show FW and readers why the sources cited by FW are incorrect and should not be applied to ALL registered sex offenders in American communities.
First, SOURCE-1: "*Doren, D. M. (1998). Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the "sexual predator" commitment laws. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16, 97-114. "
Why is it that anyone could believe stats applicable to those in civil commitment would be applicable to former offenders in society. In fact, D.M.Doren's civil commitment percentages are actually cited from a study done by R.Prentky in 1997. That study, of folks in civil commitment in Massachusetts, whose author said, DO NOT apply these stats to any other population of sex offenders. See Prentky Error Explained
Next, SOURCE-2: **http://ww2.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/pdf/200403-2_e.pdf
This meta-analysis is quite misleading because while it claims 4,613 particpants, in reality there were only 3,632 (See Table-1 pg-4 of study). Further, of the 3,632 actual participants 2,410 had recidivism rates calculated based not just on new convictions, but also on new charges and new convictions (Table-1), hence bloating their recidivism rates. In addition, the California group (1,137) did not have ANY therapy while they were in prison because California does not provide therapy to folks while imprisoned. That particlular study is flawed as was reviewed here.
The Source-2 Canadian meta-analysis of studies, contained some studies that predate a time when correctional systems provided modern therapy regimes, and individually the studies were of selected sub groups of sex offenders and not indicative of all sex offenders. Further, the meta-study does not consider the larger and more relevant 1994 Department of Justice study of American sex offenders released from prison: Recidivism of sex offenders released in 1994
Abstract: Presents, for the first time, data on the rearrest, reconviction, and reimprisonment of 9,691 male sex offenders, including 4,295 child molesters, who were tracked for 3 years after their release from prisons in 15 States in 1994. The 9,691 are two-thirds of all the male sex offenders released from prisons in the United States in 1994. The study represents the largest followup ever conducted of convicted sex offenders following discharge from prison and provides the most comprehensive assessment of their behavior after release.
This is the best cross sectional view of the entire class of sex offenders. This study, unlike all others, does not exclude any offender, instead includes all sex offenders released that year for those 15 states. The 9,691 sex offenders were released from State prisons in these 15 States:
Arizona (122); California (3,395); Delaware (45); Florida (965); Illinois (710); Maryland (243); Michigan (444); Minnesota (239); New Jersey (429); New York (692); North Carolina (441); Ohio (606); Oregon (408); Texas (692); Virginia (260). (DoJ pg-39)
When commenting on all sex offenders this study is most relevant and on point.
This study reveals a recidivism (REARREST) rate for both, sex offenders and non-sex offenders who went on to commit a sex offense following release from prison. A subtle point most folks miss, non-sex offenders commit more sex crimes than do sex offenders following release, see following chart:
| Released | Offender Type | ReArrested New Sex Offense | %/# of New Sex Offenses | Convicted of New Sex Offense | 9,691 | Sex Offenders | 5.3% (517) | 13% (1 every 2 days) | 3.5% (339) | 262,420 | Non-Sex Offenders | 1.3% (3,328) | 87% (3 per day) | .83% (2,179) | 272,111 | All Offenders | 1.4% (3,845) | 100% |
Construction of chart- DOJ Pg-24 states: Sex offenders compared to non-sex offenders: "The 15 States in this study released a total of 272,111 prisoners in 1994. The 9,691 released sex offenders made up less than 4% of that total. Of the remaining 262,420 non-sex offenders, 3,328 (1.3%) were rearrested for a new sex crime within 3 years." and "Based on official arrest records, 517 of the 9,691 released sex offenders (5.3%) were rearrested for a new sex crime within the first 3 years following their release (table 21)." and DOJ Pg-2 states: "Of the 9,691 released sex offenders, 3.5% (339 of the 9,691) were reconvicted for a sex crime within the 3-year followup period." **Calculated using same proportions between 517 and 339 for sex offenders.
Finally, SOURCE-3: ***Self-Reported Sex Crimes of Non-incarcerated Paraphiliacs by Abel et al in Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 1987, vol 2, no 1, pp 3-25.
I find it very interesting that FW would quote this study because it is taking the word of convicted sex offenders (while not imprisoned they were under various forms of state control or referral, and about 45% felt pressured to particpate. pg-13-14), and FW discounts as not credible the word of any registered sex offender in the community who the Human Rights Watch cites as a source. Did Able check and verify the claims of those he questioned, or did he accept them as true because that suited his ends? I don't know and the study is silent on that point (I have read it). Finally, this study was done in 1987 using subjects from a time before there was any modern day therapy regime and is not indicative of former offenders found in American communites today.
Family Watchdog!
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